Editor’s Note: This piece was originally published on October 26 and has been updated to reflect the impending Game 6.
Though they possess a 3-2 lead, the Cleveland Indians’ task does not get any easier in Game 6 of the World Series as they face 2015 Cy Young Award winner Jake Arrieta. Arrieta was not the same pitcher in 2016 as the command which anchored his elite 2015 campaign seemed to elude him. Arrieta’s walk rate looked more like his walk rate with Orioles than after he transitioned to the Cubs. Walking 3.5-plus per nine innings will limit almost anyone’s ceiling. With fewer strikeouts and more walks one’s strand rate is bound to decline which led to Arrieta’s ERA and FIP spikes. Arrieta was still an above league average pitcher mind you, with a 3.50 FIP but the dominance disappeared.
Arrieta induced soft contact again in 2016, limiting the BABIP ceiling and the power. Arrieta is a ground ball pitcher.
Fortunately for the Indians, Arrieta as absolutely atrocious at holding base runners. Of the 26 players who attempted to steal against Arrieta, 23 were successful. Nobody was better stealing bases against right handed pitching than the Cleveland Indians. For the second straight game, one of the Indians greatest strengths is one of the Cubs most glaring weaknesses. The Indians ability to get on base and use this advantage is one of the most important parts of this series.
WFNY’s projected Cleveland Indians Game 2 lineup with wRC+ against RHP:
- Santana 122 S
- Kipnis 123 L
- Lindor 119 S
- Napoli 115 R
- Ramirez 100 S
- Chisenhall 102 L
- Naquin 138 L
- Crisp 100 S
- Perez 84 R
Arrieta’s arsenal and usage rates are actually relatively rare.
Courtesy of Brooks Baseball
Arrieta relies heavily on his slider, and his increased its usage in a small sample this postseason. Likely, in a similar vein to Kluber and Bauer who adapted usage based on scouting reports. For Arrieta there are really two pitches one can expect to see roughly 70-80 percent of the time and deserve most of our attention.
First the sinker, Arrieta’s highest usage pitch. The sinker induced 55 percent ground balls and a 72 wRC+ against which means it is a significantly above average offering. However, Arrieta has lost a tick on all his pitches including his sinker in 2016.
Courtesy of Brooks Baseball
Arrieta leans heavily on the sinker on the outer half to left handed hitters much like Marco Estrada of the Blue Jays except with a little more velocity, the added velocity being an issue for some Indians hitters.
Courtesy of Brooks Baseball
Jason Kipnis does a phenomenal job driving sinkers on the outer half and off the plate. If Kipnis feels healthy, he is a great matchup against Arrieta.
Courtesy of Brooks Baseball
As usual, Carlos Santana love pitchers with heavy sinker usage, and decimates the ball on the outer half.
Courtesy of Brooks Baseball
Arrieta’s slider was more of an average offering in 2016 with a 99 wRC+ against and a merely solid K-rate. Arrieta likes to bury it inside but has trouble at times putting it inside off the plate to left handed hitters. Arrieta’s usage of the pitch declined a bit in 2016 because his ability to command the offering declined in 2016 compared to 2015.
Courtesy of Brooks Baseball
Courtesy of Brooks Baseball
You will see that a big piece of Arrieta’s slider decline in 2016 is his inability to bury it inside and down, leaving far too many offerings over the plate.
Chisenhall against right handed pitching fun, Chisenhall against inside quarter sliders, more fun.
Courtesy of Brooks Baseball
Kipnis loves the slider insider quarter as well. Kipnis will be a key player offensively for the Tribe in Game 2.
Courtesy of Brooks Baseball
Baseball is unpredictable I cannot emphasize this enough. I have now written nine previews and do not consider myself a visionary. As pitchers go, this sounds strange perhaps but this looks like a solid matchup for the Indians. There is a good chance I look a fool on Wednesday so collect your screenshots.
A friend Adam Burke noted an important point from Arrieta’s Game 2 start: The Indians only swung and missed on 1 of 36 non-sinkers(Changeup/Curveball/Slider). The Indians were on the secondary offerings from Arrieta without punishing them. The Indians ability to barrel secondary offerings will be very important.
Arrieta does not bury the sinker the way the pitchers need to torture the Indians, the slider also is not buried enough to be deadly. With Arrieta’s command issues, the Indians will have the opportunity to press him early.
